管经济学人能源公司

能源公司 1

烧钱,对人的话可能是很酷的,电影中小马哥烧美钞点烟成了经典,不过当公司也先河这样做,是浪漫如故危险?

Firms that burn up $1bn a year are sexy but statistically doomed

历年烧10亿日币的商号很肉麻可是从总计学上看木已成舟要破产

Five outliers – Chesapeake Energy, Netflix, Nextera Energy, Tesla and
Uber – have collectively lost $100bn in the past decade

三个相当值:切萨皮克能源,网飞,新时代能源,福特和优步,在过去十年间共计损失1000亿日币。

【1】YVES SAINTLAURENT, Lady Gaga, David Bowie. Some people do not
operate by the same rules as everyone else. Might the same be true of
companies? Most bosses complain of being slaves to short-term profit
targets. Yet a few flout the orthodoxy in flamboyant fashion. Consider
Tesla, a maker of electric cars. This year, so far, it has missed its
production targets and lost $1.8bn of free cash flow (the money firms
generate after capital investment has been subtracted). No matter. If
its founder Elon Musk muses aloud about driverless cars and space
travel, its shares rise like a rocket—by 66% since the start of January.
Tesla is one of a tiny cohort of firms with a licence to lose billions
pursuing a dream. The odds of them achieving it are similar to those of
aspiring pop stars and couture designers.

flout:[flaʊt] v. 藐视;轻视;嘲笑

The foolish boy flout his mother’s advice.

其一愚蠢的孩子轻视他三姑的劝说。

orthodoxy:[‘ɔːrθədɑːksi] n. 正统说法;正教;信奉正教

He had remained true to the old orthodoxy.

他直接忠实格守古老的正统观念。

flamboyant:[flæmˈbɔɪənt] adj.艳丽的;火焰似的;过分豪华的
n.凤凰木;火焰色红花

subtract:[səb’trækt] v. 减去;减少

muse:[mjuːz] v. 沉思;冥想 n. 沉思

cohort:[ˈkoʊhɔ:rt] n.(古杜塞尔多夫军队的)步兵大队,军队;一群人

odds:[ɒdz] n. 机率;可能性;差异;投注赔率;让步;优势

伊夫(伊夫)•圣Roland,Lady
Gaga,戴维•鲍伊,总有一些人办事与众不同。公司也足以如此啊?大部分业主常抱怨自己是长时间利润指标的下人。但是,有一部分人用一种招摇的章程表达了对这种专业规则的鄙弃。想想电动汽车成立商道奇,2019年,到目前结束,它没有兑现其生产目的,还损失了18亿卢比的妄动现金流(集团扣除了本金投资后的生产值)。不要紧,只要该集团开创者伊隆•马斯克在自言自语时大声一点,说些无人驾驶的汽车、太空旅行什么的,该铺面的股票就会像火箭一样上升,实际上11月来说其股价已经升起了66%。这类集团是一个很小的群落,它们被允许在追求梦想的长河中损失数十亿比索,道奇是中间一员。它们实现目标的票房价值,就和这多少个有雄心壮志的风靡明星和服饰设计师能打响的概率差不多。

[2]Investing today for profits tomorrow is what capitalism is all
about. Amazon lost $4bn in 2012-14 while building an empire that now
makes money. Nonetheless, it is rare for big companies to sustain heavy
losses just to expand fast. If you examine the members of the Russell
1000 index of large American firms, only 25 of them, or 3.3%, lost over
$1bn of free cash flow in 2016 (all figures exclude financial firms and
are based on Bloomberg data). In 2007 the share was 1.4% and in 1997,
under 1%. Most billion-dollar losers today are energy firms temporarily
in the doldrums as they adjust to a recent plunge in oil prices. Their
losses are an accident.

capitalism:[ˈkæpɪtlˌɪzəm] n.资本主义(制度);资本(或财富)的有所

sustain:[sə’steɪn] vt. 支持;承受;维持;认可;经受

free cash flow:自由现金流

temporarily:[tempəˈrerɪlɪ] adv.暂时地;临时地

in the doldrums:无精打采;意气消沉;萧条

The economy is in the doldrums.

经济正处在萧条期。

plunge:[plʌndʒ] n. 猛跌,骤降, 骤减

资本主义的真面目就是前几日斥资以求前日创汇。2012-2014年,Amazon损失了40亿港币,建立起明天扭亏为盈的店铺公司。就算这么,大商店单独为了快速壮大而接受巨大损失依然是少有的。如果你调查过美国巨型商厦的Russell1000指数的分子,就会意识2016年只有25家或者说3.3%的小卖部自由现金流损失超过10亿(所有数据均来源于彭博社,且不包括经济集团)。二〇〇七年这类集团的百分比是1.4%,1997年低于1%。前天,损失数十亿加元的大部是能源公司,它们在适应如今油价的骤降,暂时处于低迷景观。它们的损失是想不到情形。

[3]But a few firms love life in the fast lane. Netflix, Uber and Tesla
are tech companies that say their (largely unproven) business models
will transform industries. Two others stand out for the sheer
persistence of their losses. Chesapeake Energy, a fracking firm at the
heart of America’s shale revolution, has lost at least $1bn of free cash
flow a year for an incredible 14 years in a row. Nextera Energy, a
utility that runs wind and solar plants, and which investors value
highly, has managed 12 years on the trot.

in the fast lane:在生存的快车道上;快节奏的(生活);充分刺激的(生活)

He was enjoying life in the fast lane.

他尽情享用着各式各种的生存。

persistence:[pər’sɪstəns] n. 坚持;毅力

fracking:水力压裂法,液压破碎法

shale:[ʃeɪl] n. 页岩;泥板岩

on the trot:接连地;一个接一个

但有些商家喜欢快节奏的活着。网飞、优步和大众都是科技公司,这么些店铺称她们(大部分并未证实)的商业情势会变动产业。其余两家商厦因为其损失的持久性而显得优秀。切萨皮克能源是一家水力压裂技术公司,处于米国页岩革命的主导。难以置信的是,它早已连续14年每年至少损失10亿加元自由现金流。新时代能源是一家运行风力和太阳能发电站的公用事业公司,受到投资者的中度重视,它也早已连续12年处在这种情景了。

[4]Collectively these five firms have burned $100bn in the past
decade, yet they boast a total market value of about $300bn. Combining
punchy valuations with massive losses means taking the entrepreneurial
art form to a dizzying extreme. Steve Jobs, Apple’s co-founder, was said
to have a “reality distortion field” that allowed him to bend the
perception of others (although Apple itself was fairly timorous, losing
just $874m in its worst year, in 1993). The experience of the five
suggests that bending reality today has three elements: a vision, fast
growth, and financing.

collectively:[kə’lektɪvlɪ] adv.全体地,共同地

punchy:[ˈpʌntʃi] adj.言简意赅的;简洁有力的;生气勃勃的;有份量的

entrepreneurial:[ˌɒntrəprə’nɜ:rɪəl] adj.创业的,具有公司精神的;集团

dizzying:[ˈdɪziɪŋ] adj.令人昏乱的,灿烂的

perception:[pərˈsepʃn] n.知觉;观念;觉察(力)

timorous:[ˈtɪmərəs] adj.胆怯的,羞怯的

vision:[‘vɪʒn] n. 视力;视觉;幻觉;眼光 v. 幻想;设想

过去十年间,这五家商厦一共烧了得有1000亿新币,可是其市值总和大约3000亿法郎。高额的估值和宏伟的损失结合在一块儿,可谓是把创业的法门格局达到了一种令人目眩的无限。苹果创办人之一史蒂夫(Steve)•乔布斯被誉为有一种“现实扭曲力场”,让她能挽回外人的传统(固然苹果本身是分外胆怯的,它最不好的一年1993年也只损失了8.74亿英镑)。这五家商家的阅历注脚前几日的切实扭曲力场需要三个因素:一个愿景、神速增长和融资能力。

[5]Take the vision thing first. A charismatic leader with a
world-changing plan is de rigueur. For its first 23 years Chesapeake was
led by Aubrey McClendon, a cocky Oklahoman who pioneered the process of
blasting rocks to extract gas and oil (he died last year in a high-speed
car crash). Reed Hastings at Netflix plans to destroy the conventional
TV industry by selling films and shows over the internet. Like Mr Musk,
Travis Kalanick, Uber’s tarnished former boss, dreams of changing how
humans travel. Nextera is led by technocrats but their aim is
grandiose—to usher in a new generation of energy technology.

charismatic:[ˌkærɪzˈmætɪk] adj.有魅力的;神赐能力的

de rigueur:[dəriˈɡɚr] adj.社交礼节上急需的;遵照风俗;按照时髦

cocky:[‘kɒki] adj. 骄傲的;自大的;太过自信的

pioneer:[ˌpaɪə’nɪə(r)] n. 先锋;开拓者;先驱 v. 开辟;首倡

extract:[‘ekstrækt] vt. 摘录;提取;拔出;榨出 n. 摘录;精华;榨出物

tarnish:[‘tɑrnɪʃ] v.玷污;使丧失光泽;使变色;(丧)失(光)泽
n.晦暗;表面变色;污点

technocrat:[ˈteknəkræt] n.技术专家,专家政治论者,技术统治论者

grandiose:[‘ɡrændiəʊs] adj. 宏伟的;壮观的;浮夸的

usher:[‘ʌʃər]能源公司, n. 带位员;招待员 vt. 指引;引入;做招待;担任引座员

先说愿景,必须有一个魅力超凡的经营管理者,并且这个人有一个改变世界的计划。切萨皮克能源开端的23年是由奥布里•麦克伦登领导的,奥布里是一个放肆自大的俄克拉荷马州人,他首创了经过爆破岩石来提取石油和天然气(这厮2018年死于一场高速车祸)。网飞的雷德•哈斯汀斯计划经过网上销售电影和综艺节目来摧毁传统电视机行业。和马斯克先生一样,优步声名狼藉的前人总裁特拉维斯•卡兰尼克(Nick)梦想于改变人们出行的不二法门。新时代能源是由技术专家官员的,不过她们的目标非常宏伟——开革新一代能源技术。

[6]The vision needs to be validated by runaway growth. Often firms
emphasise a flattering operating measure, such as oil and gas pumped
from the ground, the number of rides hailed and so on. Investors need to
believe in a high “terminal value”, a point in the future when high,
stable profits will arrive. So it helps to show that, hypothetically,
profits would gush if breakneck growth were to stop. Uber says it is
profitable in cities where it has operated longest, such as San
Francisco. Nextera says that if it stopped investing in new capacity, it
would make $6bn of free cash flow a year. Netflix amortises the cost of
content over periods of up to five years, so reports an accounting
profit even as it bleeds cash.

validate:[‘vælɪdeɪt] vt. 使生效;证实;确认;验证

runaway:[‘rʌnəweɪ] n. 逃跑者;逃亡 adj. 逃跑的;失控的;迅速的

pump:[pʌmp] n. 泵;抽水机;打气筒;抽水 v. 打气;灌输;抽取;增加

hypothetically:[ˌhaɪpə’θetɪklɪ] adv.假设地,假想地

gush:[ɡʌʃ] v.喷涌;迸出 n.涌出;迸发

breakneck:[‘breɪknek] adj. 异常惊险的;极快的

capacity:[kə’pæsəti] n. 容量;容积;能力;职位

amortise:[ə’mɔ:taɪz] v.分期偿还,摊还(债款)

这种愿景需要通过神速的提升来证实。集团一般会尊重一种讨人欣赏的操作手段,像是从地上抽取的原油和天然气、受欢迎车程的多寡等等。投资者需要相信将来出现高额稳定的赢利时得以获取一个高的“终值”。所以,它有助于申明,假想意况下急迅增长截至时利润会大量涌出。优步说在那个曾经运行很久的都会例如马尼拉,自己是扭亏的。新时代能源说,尽管它停止对新增功用的投资,一年就能打造60亿日币的随意现金流。新时代在长达五年的光阴内分期归还内容成本,以报告出会计利润,尽管它在流失现金。

[7]The third element is financing to pay for huge cumulative losses.
Each of the five firms has been a financial innovator, taking advantage
of cheap money and growth-hungry investors. Uber has tapped private
capital markets, Nextera has structured part of its business as a
partnership, Tesla has taken deposits from customers and also trades
environmental tax credits. Chesapeake Energy sparked Wall Street’s lust
for shale junk bonds, and Netflix has signed commitments to make $14bn
of future payments to studios and artists to buy creative content.

cumulative:[ˈkju:mjəleɪtɪv] adj.累积的;渐增的,追加的

innovator:[‘ɪnəveɪtə(r)] n. 改革者;刷新者

deposit:[dɪ’pɒzɪt] v. 放置;(使)沉淀;存储;寄存 n.
存款;定金;堆积物

junk
bonds:垃圾债券,风险债券(利息高,风险大,用于集资建立、收购新集团等)

其五个要素是融资以清偿累积的巨额损失。这五家商店都是经济立异者,利用了低息贷款和梦寐以求加强的投资者。优步开发了私人资本市场,新时代能源将其部分工作变成了私营,大众从消费者处得到存款,并拓展了条件税收抵免的贸易。切萨皮克能源引发了华尔街对页岩污染源债券的强烈欲望,而新时代已经签署了承诺——将来向工作室和音乐家们开发140亿泰铢以购买其创意内容。

[8]So sustaining a reality distortion field is possible, but the
longer it goes on for, the harder it gets. More capital has to be raised
and, in order to justify it, the bigger the firm’s projected ultimate
size—its terminal value—has to be. Fast growth puts huge strain on
managers. At some point the edifice can come tumbling down. The five
companies described here have $60bn of borrowings, and one, Chesapeake,
is struggling with its debt load.

distortion:[dɪ’stɔːʃn] n. 扭曲;变形;曲解

ultimate:[‘ʌltɪmət] adj. 根本的;极限的;最后的;终极的 n.
终极;极品;根本

edifice:[ˈedɪfɪs] n. 大厦;宏伟建筑

tumble down:(建筑物)摇摇欲坠,倒塌

由此保持一个切实可行扭曲力场是可能的,不过其持续时间越长,就越难起效率。为了证实这或多或少,必须筹措更多的本钱,集团的预测最终规模——其终值——也必须更大。快速增长给管理人带来巨大压力。大厦会在某一时时倒塌。这里提到的五家商厦有600亿举债,其中之一的切萨皮克能源还在债务承担下苦不堪言。

Poker face

扑克脸

[9]A few firms other than Amazon have defied the odds. Over the past
20 years Las Vegas Sands, a casino firm, Royal Caribbean, a cruise-line
company, and Micron Technology, a chip-maker, each lost $1bn or more for
two consecutive years and went on to prosper. But the chances of success
are slim. Of the current members of the Russell 1000 index, since 1997
only 37 have lost $1bn or more for at least two years in a row. Of
these, 21 still lose money.

casino:[kə’siːnəʊ] n. 娱乐场;赌场

consecutive:[kən’sekjətɪv] adj. 连续的;连贯的

prosper:[‘prɑːspər] vi. 繁盛;成功;兴旺

in a row:连续,一连

除外Amazon以外,有几家合作社现已有所突破。在过去的20年里,经营赌场的阿拉木图金沙公司,邮轮运营商皇家加勒比集团,芯片创设商美光科技公司,他们都曾在连续两年内损失了10亿新币或更多,却持续繁荣着。不过成功的时机很小。1997年的话,在Russell1000指数当前成员中,只有37家商厦接连两年以上每年至少亏损10亿新币。其中21家现在还在亏损。

[10]To justify their valuations, the five firms examined by Schumpeter
must grow their sales by an estimated 8-33% each year for a decade.
Based on the record of all American companies since 1950, and the five
firms’ present revenue levels, the probability of this happening ranges
between 0.1% and 25%, using statistical tables from Credit Suisse, a
bank.

这几家熊彼特审查过的商家要想申明自己的市值,每年的臆想销售额增长必须在8%-33%间,保持十年。使用瑞士联邦信贷银行总结表揣测,依据1950年以来所有美民有公司业的笔录和这五家商店目前的收入水平,这种情景时有暴发的可能介于0.1%至25%里面。

[11]Firms that burn piles of cash are often lionised in an era when
growth is sluggish and few companies reinvest all their profits. But
losing a billion dollars or more a year is a wildly risky affair and the
odds are that such businesses will fall flat. This should not be a
surprise—hardly anyone can pull off building a fashion empire around
androgyny, wearing a raw meat dress to an awards ceremony, or singing
about life on Mars.

lionise:[‘laɪənaɪz] v. 把(某人)视为有名的人;把(某人)当成要人相比

sluggish:[‘slʌɡɪʃ] adj. 缓慢的;懒惰的;迟钝的;萧条的;无精打采的

reinvest:[ˌri:ɪn’vest] vt. 再投资于,再授给

androgyny:[æn’drɒdʒɪnɪ] n. 雌雄同体;雌雄同体性

在一个加强减缓很少有店铺将享有利润用于再投资的一时,烧了大量现款的店堂平常受到追捧。然而每年损失十亿日元甚至更多仍旧卓殊惊险,这样的信用社很可能会失败。这或多或少也不奇怪,几乎一向不人能在双性同体的底蕴上建立一个时髦帝国,穿着生肉礼服加入颁奖典礼,或者在火星上赞誉生活。

所谓的烧钱,其实是公司采用的一种经营策略,这些商店愿意冒着风险,因为信任可以拿到更大的获益。但是如文中所说,从总计上讲这种作为战败的几率更大,尽管拥有这三个元素,公司想要维持下去也是困难的。一将功成万骨枯,在成功挺过亏损的Amazon背后,是成百上千没能见到曙光就“流血而死”的商家,对于绝大多数集团来说,如故踏踏实实的好。

英文原稿:

http://www.economist.com

讲解:霞姐 / Tiassa / Angel

编排 / 校对:Angel

此次作品翻译为魔力大学原创

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