股息收益越来越难求

DIVIDENDS provide the vast bulk of long-term returns from equities. Work
by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business
School shows that the real annual total return from American shares
since 1900 has been 6.4%. Capital gains supplied just a third of that
figure; reinvested dividends accounted for the rest.

股息是股票可以一劳永逸得到的要害收入。London商大学的Elroy Dimson, Paul 马尔斯h和
MikeStaunton研商表明:自一九零五年来说,美股的真正年度总纯收入保持在6.4%。资本受益仅占该数值的三分之一,而其余均为再投资的股息。

So the outlook for dividends ought to be crucial for equity investors.
They should be concerned that, in some markets, dividend income is
concentrated in a small number of stocks (see chart). In Australia,
Britain, France, Germany and Switzerland, more than 70% of the dividends
come from just 20 companies.

据此,股息未来的高低对于股票投资人至关心爱慕要。投资人应该会担心,一些市面包车型大巴股息收益只是集中在个别股票(见图表)上。在澳洲、英帝国、法兰西、德意志及瑞士联邦诸国,7/10的股息仅来源于20家集团。

That leaves investors’ income dependent on the fortunes of just a few
industries. Banks were big dividend-payers until the financial crisis of
2008; energy and mining companies have been good sources of income since
then. But falling commodity prices are leading energy companies to
reduce their payouts. Last year 504 American companies cut their
dividends, according to Standard & Poor’s, a credit-rating agency,
compared with 291 in 2014. Energy companies made up nearly half of the
dividend-cutting group in the fourth quarter.

那使得投资人的受益信赖于少数行当的天命。银行在2009年金融危害前平昔是大额股息的派发者。从那未来,能源和矿业集团改为优异的股息受益来自。但当下,大宗商品价位暴跌导致能源集团收缩费用。据信用评级机构标普的数目,二零一八年有504家美利坚联邦合众国集团减弱股息,与此比较二〇一六年是291家。而在第⑥季度减弱股息的店堂中,能源公司占到将近2/4。

As a result of these cuts, dividends are growing more slowly than
before. In the fourth quarter of 2015, dividends rose by $3.6 billion in
cash terms, compared with a $12 billion increase in the same period of

  1. Investors who need income are now relying on the pharmaceutical
    and health-care sectors; research by Andrew Lapthorne of Société
    Générale, a bank, shows that the three largest stock holdings of global
    income funds are Pfizer, Roche and Johnson & Johnson.

股息减少,所以股息拉长比从前越来越缓慢。二零一四年第伍季度,以现金计股息增加了36亿美元,而与之相比较,二〇一五年同期增幅为120亿澳元。须要收入的投资者们前日依靠的是制药和正规领域。法兰西平安银行的AndrewLapthorne 商讨表明:整个世界收益型基金的最大三家控制股份公司为辉瑞、罗氏和强生。

The narrow base of dividend provision is important when it comes to
judging the attractiveness of equities. In some markets, dividend yields
are higher than government-bond yields; in Britain, for example, the
FTSE All-Share index yields 4% whereas 10-year gilts offer just 1.7%.
For some, this makes equities a bargain.

在认清股票的重力时,股息派发的窄基底很主要。在局地市面,股息获益抢先政坛债券受益。以United Kingdom为例,富时全股指数收益为4%,而十年期英帝国国债收益仅为1.7%。对一部分人而言,买股票更经济。

Until the 1950s it was the norm for equities to have a higher yield than
bonds. Shares were perceived to be riskier than government bonds so
investors demanded higher payouts for owning them. But opinion changed
as the market began to be dominated by institutional investors—pension
funds and insurance companies. Their size allowed them to own
diversified portfolios, in which the consequences of the failure of an
individual firm were much reduced. Thus hedged, they piled into equities
to capitalise on the tendency of dividends to grow over time. Interest
payments on bonds, in contrast, are fixed, which was a particular
problem in the inflationary environment of the 1960s and 1970s. As a
result the dividend yield dropped below the government-bond yield in
most markets and stayed there.

一向到上世纪50年间,股票的收入一般都以超过债券。因为人们认为股票比政党债券危害大,所以投资人会供给更高的报恩才享有股票。但是当机构投资者(养老开销和确定保证集团)主导集镇时,观念发生了转移。机构投资者资金量大,可具备多元化的工本重组,个别集团业绩倒霉发出的影响会明显收缩。如此对冲危害后,他们便大方购置股票,因股息会随时间呈拉长而获利。相比之下,债券的利息率支出是稳定的,这在上世纪60、70年间的通货膨胀环境下曾是个特定难点。结果在一大半市集,股息收益率降到政府债券收益率之下,并持续保持那种景观。

Since the financial crisis of 2008, the ratio seems to have undergone
another fundamental shift. Government bonds are valued for their safety,
particularly in a world of low inflation. A high yield on an equity,
meanwhile, may simply suggest that investors expect the dividend to be
cut. Shares in BHP Billiton, a mining group, have plunged along with
commodity prices. That makes their yield, calculated using last year’s
dividend, look extremely high, at 12%. But analysts expect the dividend
to be cut in half this year. Investors may also be seeking a higher
overall dividend yield on equities to reflect the riskier nature of the
income stream now that dividends are more concentrated among fewer
companies.

自二〇一〇年金融风险以来,这一比率仿佛发生了另一常有扭转。政坛债券因其安全性,特别是在满世界低通货膨胀的景观下,而饱受青眼。而与此同时,股票的高收益率恐怕独自表示投资者预期股息会缩减。矿业集团必和必拓的股票随着大宗商品价位跳水而低沉。那使得它们的纯收入以上年的股息计算,看上去极高,达到了12%。不过分析职员预测今年股息会扣除。既然股息收益会集中于少数卖家手中,投资者或许还会谋求更高的总股息收益,那也出示了现金流的危机性。

能源公司,What about share buy-backs? They are an alternative source of income for
investors; for some, they are a more tax-efficient way of receiving
cash. But buy-backs are much more variable than dividends: the amount
spent on them by non-financial companies in the S&P 500 index fell from
over $400 billion in 2007 to under $70 billion in 2009, according to
Deutsche Bank. Companies can quietly trim their buy-back programmes; a
dividend cut is a public sign of trouble. And, of course, investors who
sell their shares in a buy-back need to find some other asset to replace
that source of income.

股票回购境况怎么样?它们是投资者收入的3个代表来源。对部分投资人来说,股票回购是一种缴税较少的接受现金的措施。但是回购比股息的变数大得多,据德意志联邦共和国际清算银行行数据,标准普尔500指数中的非金融公司用于回购的金额,已从二零零五年的6000亿台币下滑至2008年的700亿比索以下。集团能够从容不迫地修改各自的回购安插。收缩派息则是贰个当众的危殆信号。当然,在回购中售卖股票的投资人须求找到任何资金财产替代这一收入来源。

Investors ignore dividends at their peril. In more than a century of
data, across 19 countries, the LBS academics found that annual returns
from the markets with the highest dividend yields were eight percentage
points higher than those from the lowest-yielding markets. So during the
current reporting season, smart investors will be looking not just at
notional earnings (which can be a highly subjective measure) but at the
cold, hard cash that companies are shelling out.

投资人不顾股息红利,后果堪虑。London商院的专家们通过十八个国家3个世纪多的数码发现,最高股利息率市集的年回报比低于股利息率市镇高几个百分点。因而,在当下财报季,聪明的投资者不仅会关怀假想收益(那几个正式也许非凡不合理),还会关注集团支出的真人真事的现钞。

           

                                                   

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